How accurate is Plyuh — a live scoreboard
We compare every forecast we make against reality — buoys and satellites — and publish the result. Updated 2026-10-13.
By forecast horizon
| Horizon | Samples | Hit rate ±25% | Error, m | Calibrated, m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 h | 3473 | 71 % | 0.2 | 0.19 |
| 7–24 h | 7718 | 70 % | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| 25–48 h | 9478 | 70 % | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| 49–72 h | 7538 | 63 % | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| 3–5 days | 8125 | 57 % | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| 5–7 days | 2754 | 52 % | 0.34 | 0.33 |
How we measure it
Every hour the server stores an immutable snapshot of the forecast for all open spots — “what we promised”. Millions of rows already.
Forecasts are verified against ~400 real buoys (Spain, NOAA, Australia, Copernicus In Situ) and satellite altimeters (Sentinel-3/6, SWOT, CFOSAT and more) measuring wave height along their tracks.
“Hit rate” is the share of hours where the forecast height landed within ±25% of the buoy reading. “Calibrated” is our automatic per-region buoy correction — the one shown on the site.
Snapshots are immutable and carry the engine version — nothing can be tuned after the fact.
Satellite verification worldwide
Regions with satellite verification: 287; in 188 of them the model is within ±10% of the altimeter reading.
Regions with a nearby buoy
| Region | Buoy (km) | Forecast↔buoy pairs | Hit 0–24 h | Error, m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| valencia | Valencia (39) | 6962 | 25 % | 0.23 |
| euskadi | Pasaia station (4) | 6855 | 98 % | 0.15 |
| fr-bidart-sjdl | Saint-Jean-de-Luz (1) | 3721 | 89 % | 0.14 |
| safor-marina | Valencia (59) | 3477 | 59 % | 0.11 |
| pays-basque-fr | Saint-Jean-de-Luz (11) | 3398 | 91 % | 0.14 |
| galicia | Langosteira (5) | 3389 | 95 % | 0.2 |
| asturias | Gijón (6) | 3291 | 87 % | 0.22 |
| asturias-west | Cabo de Peñas (21) | 1980 | 85 % | 0.29 |
| fr-normandie | Cherbourg (22) | 1487 | 31 % | 0.49 |
| cantabria | Bilbao (costera) (24) | 1377 | 65 % | 0.46 |
| algarve | Sines coastal buoy (55) | 1375 | 79 % | 0.17 |
| landes | Saint-Jean-de-Luz (28) | 1358 | 93 % | 0.18 |
| catalonia | Barcelona (6) | 266 | 0 % | 0.16 |